Whether the invasion of Ukraine or any other event will result in nuclear war raises desperately important questions. My country, the United States, supports Ukraine, making it a potential target of a Russian nuclear attack. In the first few days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the conflict was escalating so fast that it could have conceivably gone all the way to nuclear war. It's rare, however, that I have gone to sleep wondering whether the very next day will bring an exchange of nuclear weapons. "OK good," I said to myself, "we made it through the night without a nuclear war." I work for the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute, a US-based think tank, where it's my job to think about humanity's gravest future threats. My neighbourhood in the New York City area was calm and normal. One day last week, I woke up in the morning and looked out the window to see the Sun was shining.
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